How do I make a prediction on Elopis?

Pick a side, type how much you want to put in, and confirm. Before you confirm you see what leaves your wallet and what comes back if you are right. Add money with M-Pesa.

When and how is this event decided?

Trading closes on 8 Aug 2027. After the result is known, the event is decided using the source listed in the Rules tab. If you are right you get back more than you put in. If you are wrong you get back nothing.

What fees does Elopis charge?

One fee, and only when you take a price that is already there. It is never more than 4% of what you put in, and you see it before you confirm. Part of it goes to the person on the other side of your trade and a small part to whoever created the event. The rest is ours. Separately, the price to buy is always a little above the price to sell, and you can see both in the order book.

Can I sell before the event is decided?

Yes. You can sell any time while the event is open. Sell any part of what you hold at the current price, which may be more or less than you paid.

Electionskenya

Who wins Kenya's 2027 presidency?

Loading outcomes chart…

5 options

Chance

William Ruto

KSh 6.5M Vol.

46%6.2

Rigathi Gachagua

KSh 3.0M Vol.

24%3.0

Kalonzo Musyoka

KSh 1.3M Vol.

14%5.7

Fred Matiang'i

KSh 1.1M Vol.

13%2.8

Musalia Mudavadi

KSh 413.6K Vol.

5%3.5

Resolves to the candidate declared President-elect by the IEBC for the 2027 General Election, after any Supreme Court petition.

Resolution source: iebc.or.ke

Market details

Volume: KSh 13,517,684
End Date: Aug 8, 2027, 12:00 am UTC
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2026, 11:07 pm UTC
Resolver: iebc.or.ke

Frequently Asked Questions

This is a multiple-choice prediction with 5 possible outcomes. Each one has its own chance between 0% and 100%. You put money on the outcome you think will happen.